Pedantique
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TO: (1025 unique recipients)
FROM: FORESIGHT-16 Persistent Threat Analysis Division
SUBJECT: Group of Interest 181 Assessment and Projections

Executive Summary:
Group of Interest 181 ("Chaos Insurgency") is a terrorist organization that is currently conducting a campaign of hostile activity against the interests of the Foundation in general, and against high-level personnel in particular. The group maintains modest operational capacity in Eastern Europe, Northern Africa, and Central Asia, and has proven capable of executing minor attacks in North America. GoI-181 has claimed responsibility for explosives detonated at Site-34 and Site-104, as well as a series of abductions and assassinations carried out in their areas of operation. GoI-181 is estimated to be comprised of no more than 1,500 active members and is likely funded primarily through anomalous means.

We assess with a high degree of confidence that the leadership of GoI-181 is primarily comprised of former Foundation personnel. GoI-5 (the historical "Chaos Insurgency") did not operate under that name, and its use was primarily in internal Foundation information campaigns emphasizing the group's incompetence and disorder. Several GoI-181 operations appear to have been based on outdated classified information based on targeting choices and

. Furthermore, none of the attacks carried out by the organization have endangered ongoing containment of anomalies despite ample opportunities in their areas of operation. Finally, notable GoI-181 agents have been recorded exhibiting tendencies typical of internal training programs that are unlikely to be known or emulated by external parties. A request for expedited information acquisition has been submitted to MTF Alpha-1 OPCOM.

We assess with a moderate degree of confidence that GoI-181 will carry out a significant and large-scale attack in the near future. 58 persons of interest associated with the organizations have taken steps to evade ongoing surveillance